Friday, December 18, 2009

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS


1. "Avatar"
88 Million
*

So, if you've read the reviews, this is supposed to be pretty awesome and must-see-esque and groundbreaking and life changing and eyeball fucking and all that jazz.
Normally a picture like this--with this much heat and hype and, I don't know, insanity surrounding it--would open to 100 million plus and steam out after that, probally landing in the vicinity of about 250 Million.
Think "King Kong".
The mystery of "Avatar", however, is the Cameron factor.
His last indie film, "Titanic" (maybe you've heard of it?) opened with 28 million in 1997. It took the long road (as in the 9 month long road) and slowly became the biggest film of all time.
Many are saying "Avatar" has a shot at grabbing that goalpost, however, this is a highly untested property.
Since "Spiderman" broke the 100 million three-day mark in 2002, only a handful of films have pushed past that barrier.
ALL of these films have either been sequels ("Dark Knight", "Shrek 2", "Ass Moon") or superhero films ("Hancock").
Now, if you factor in the 3d aspect, which bascially transfers to a ticket and a half in normal box office dollars, this film should be doing gangbusters.
However, the general audience seems to be on the fence about this.
They'll read the reviews (which are great) but there seems to be an odd sense of "show me what you got".
In the end, that's not a bad thing.
People did the same thing with "Titanic". After months of hype about budget, disputes, and marketing (sound familiar?) the film opened small but played huge; operating on a word of mouth system that hasn't been matched.
People didn't want to see it, but when they did, they felt like this was a movie they had to support.
So. We'll see. This could either
A) Be the highest grossing movie domestically of all time
B) Be the highest grossing movie internationly and flop domestically
or
C) Be a complete and total flop that rivals "Heaven's Gate" and "Ishtar".
....That's hope for A or B.

2.
"The Princess and The Frog"
16 Million
*

On big movie weekends, all films tend to do a little better.
Espically black princess movies, such as--
....Oh, wait a second....

3.
"The Blind Side"
10 Million
*
There are only two things I like about this movie.
1. I enjoy Sandra Bullock in a way that can only be categorized as gaygaygay.
2. I love that this movie is kicking "New Moon" and forcing the creeepy Mormon sex farce to crawl back to it's grave.

4.
"Did You Hear About The Morgans?"
8.5 Million
*

No, actually, I didn't, and I don't really think anybody else has either.
It's a terrible little concept rom-com flick that deserves to surf the bottom of the Blockbuster 2 dollar barrel for eternity.
Shame on Sarah Jessica Parker!
What was she thinking/drinking--she jumps from the hugely populaur and succesful "Sex and the City" film to "Spinning Into Butter"--(a film so bad it was delayed three times and then dumped on home video)--and then she has the gall to crawl back with this tragic piece of trash.
This woman needs a reboot.
Is her marriage to barely closeted homosexual Matthew Brodrcik THAT terryfying that she must
A) Hire a surroagte Mother to give her TWINS so she has her arms full and can't hug Matthew
and
B) Flee New York City to film terrible toilet traps with the poor man's Hugh Grant--Hugh Grant himself.
Shame.

5. "Brothers"
5.5 Million
*

In a perfect world, this and "Morgans" would switch places.
Old people should love this movie. Letterman did!
Come on. Sexy young leads. Best of their generation.
Acting. Not like "acting acting", they're like ACTING acting!
Come on, Grandma!
No?
Oh--oh, you're seeing "Avatar" too? Ok. See you there!

.............................

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